Navigating the Fog: Investing in Uncertain Times

March 12, 2026

A Portfolio Perspective on Geopolitical Risk

Imagine driving a quiet country road in the early morning hours. The fields on either side are invisible, the lane markings barely there, and the headlights illuminate only a few car lengths ahead. You are in the fog, and how you respond to that fog says everything about your judgment as a driver.

Now imagine that same fog is not weather, but war.

Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz famously described the “fog of war” as the uncertainty that pervades every battle—the incomplete information, the shifting variables, the decisions that must be made without the luxury of clarity. The phrase has endured because it captures something universal: when conflict erupts, certainty evaporates. Commanders, governments, and markets alike are left squinting into the murk, trying to discern signal from noise.

With the United States now engaged in active military conflict with Iran, that fog has descended across financial markets. And the question every investor faces right now is the same one our hypothetical driver faces on that country road: what do you do when you cannot see clearly?

Three Choices in the Fog

When fog rolls across a country road, a driver has essentially three options.

The first: ignore the conditions and keep the pedal to the metal. Speed through the uncertainty as if nothing has changed. This is the bravado approach; and occasionally it works, for the driver who happens to hit a stretch of clear road. But it is also the approach most likely to end in catastrophe. Confidence is an asset; overconfidence in a changed environment is a liability.

The second: pull over entirely and wait for the fog to lift. This has its own appeal — there is comfort in stillness. But sitting on the shoulder of the road is not without risk either. It burns time. It means missing the destination. And the fog may linger far longer than expected. In investing, going entirely to cash has historically been one of the most reliable ways to underperform over time.

The third — and wisest — option: acknowledge the changed conditions and adjust accordingly. Slow down. Use the brakes more deliberately. Keep both hands on the wheel. Stay on the road and keep moving toward the destination but do so with a heightened awareness that the environment has changed. The goal is not to stop — it is to arrive safely.

Our Response: A More Conservative Posture

In response to the escalating conflict with Iran and the significant geopolitical uncertainty it brings, we have made the deliberate decision to reduce net equity allocations and increase oil exposure within our portfolios. This is not a flight to safety born of panic. It is a considered, measured response to a changed road;  the investment equivalent of easing off the accelerator and driving with greater care.

Conflict in the Middle East carries direct implications for energy markets, global supply chains, regional allies and adversaries, and the broader risk appetite that animates financial markets. History shows that equity markets tend to absorb geopolitical shocks over time but the path through that absorption can be deeply uncomfortable, and the duration of uncertainty is always unknown in advance. No one knows how long this fog will last. Is it measured in feet or miles? Weeks or months? 

By pulling back equity exposure modestly, we smooth the ride. We reduce the amplitude of potential short-term drawdowns without abandoning long-term participation in markets. We are not parked on the shoulder. We are still moving with appropriate care for what the road ahead may hold.

The Destination Has Not Changed

Perhaps the most important thing to remember when driving in fog is this: the fog is not the road itself. It is a temporary condition layered over terrain that has not fundamentally changed. When it lifts, the route to your destination will look exactly as it always did.

The same is true of markets. Geopolitical events, even significant ones, do not permanently alter the long arc of economic growth and wealth creation. Our long-term investment thesis remains intact. What we are managing is not destination risk, but journey risk: the volatility, the uncertainty, and the behavioral temptations that tend to emerge when conditions become uncomfortable.

A disciplined investor, like a disciplined driver, neither panics nor ignores changed conditions. They adapt, reduce unnecessary risk where they can, and keep their eyes on the road ahead  knowing the fog will lift, knowing the destination remains, and trusting that the best way to get there is not speed, but sound judgment.

We will continue to monitor developments and communicate any further adjustments to your portfolio. As always, we welcome your questions.