August 7, 2024
Michael Landsberg, Chief Investment Officer of Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, provided a third quarter market update for 2024, covering interest rates, inflation, and sector outlooks. He discussed the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the fall, the potential for inflation to re-accelerate, and the importance of rebalancing portfolios to manage risk amid market fluctuations. Landsberg emphasized the long-term strategy of investing in sectors that perform well in inflationary environments and highlighted the global economic landscape, including opportunities and risks in various regions.
Key Takeaways:
Interest Rates: Landsberg anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the fall, driven by a perceived inflection point in inflation. He mentioned, “We think inflation is kind of at an inflection point now. It’s slowed, and we think it’s about as low as it’s going to go.”
Inflation Outlook: Inflation is expected to re-accelerate due to harder year-over-year comparisons and rising costs in areas like housing and shipping. Landsberg stated, “We think inflation is going to pick up a bit again. Shelter being one of the areas and also in the offing, we’re seeing the price of shipping in the world.”
Federal Reserve Strategy: Despite ongoing economic strength, the anticipated rate cut is seen as a move to alleviate some pressure on Wall Street rather than to stimulate the economy. Landsberg observed, “This cut is more of a matter of Powell going to some of the people that are clamoring on Wall Street that are highly levered.”
Sector Outlook: With inflation expected to remain higher for longer, sectors like commodities, utilities, and healthcare are highlighted as favorable. Landsberg emphasized, “If you’re long or own things that will do well in inflationary environments, inflation is not a bad thing.”
Global Economic Insights: Landsberg discussed opportunities in countries like India and Japan while expressing caution towards China due to its economic challenges. He said, “India is an area that we like, continue to like, and Japan in the US.”
Rebalancing Strategy: Regular portfolio rebalancing is crucial to managing risk and capitalizing on market opportunities. Landsberg explained, “One of the reasons we rebalance portfolios is to keep risk in check and ensure a balanced approach to investment.”
Election Impact: The upcoming election is expected to create market volatility. Landsberg noted the unusual political landscape and its potential implications for market dynamics, stating, “We’ve had a crazy few weeks with an election, with some variabilities that we’ve never seen before.”
Market Concentration: He highlighted the concentration risk in major indices like the NASDAQ and S&P 500 and the importance of trimming positions that become too large to manage downside risk effectively. “We want to trim it back to 5% if it goes to 8%,” he said.
Long-Term Investment Focus: Emphasizing a strategic approach, Landsberg pointed out that long-term earnings growth is the primary driver of stock performance. “At the end of the day, stocks go up because of earnings,” he stated.
Landsberg’s analysis highlights the need for a strategic and disciplined approach to investing. Emphasizing risk management and adaptability to market conditions, he advises focusing on sectors showing strong performance. Regular portfolio rebalancing is crucial, allowing investors to effectively navigate the current economic landscape and seize new opportunities as they arise.
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